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In 2023, 85% of all land border encounters with individuals on the terrorist watchlist occurred on our northern border.听

In my recent Stubborn Thing, 鈥�Migration: This Time It鈥檚 Different,鈥� I pointed out that, for the first time ever, most of the irregular encounters (the movement of people seeking to evade legal regulations and frameworks) along our southern border involved migrants originating from beyond Mexico and the Northern Triangle countries of Central America.听听

There鈥檚 another trend that鈥檚 fallen off policymakers鈥� radar: the growing numbers of irregular encounters鈥攊ncluding with individuals on our terrorist watch list鈥攁long our northern border.听听

Stretching , the US-Canada border is the longest land border in the world鈥攎ore than twice as long as our border with Mexico. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported that Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23) saw , a 73% increase from 2022 and a 597% increase from 2021. In fact, there were more northern border land encounters in FY23 than in all of 2020, 2021, and 2022 combined. In other words, while authorities have been grappling with sharp increases in migration across our southern border, crossings into the US from Canada have also been rising.听听

One modest factor in this increase may be that, until very recently, Canada didn鈥檛 require a visa for Mexicans entering the country and took few steps to ensure visitors left Canada after their authorized stay. Anecdotal evidence suggests human smugglers may be helping migrants from Mexico to Toronto or Montreal (roughly $350) so migrants can claim asylum in Canada or cross into the United States. Social media services such as TikTok and WhatsApp are even promoting northern border crossing services and pricing plans. After much , Canadian officials announced last month that they would reimpose visa rules for visitors from Mexico.听听

While the northern border crossing is seen as a 鈥渟afer, easier path鈥� to the United States, it is not without its dangers. Freezing temperatures, large rivers and lakes, and unscrupulous smugglers have contributed to disappearances and dead bodies. In March 2023, two families听 in the St. Lawrence River after trying to illegally enter the US. were discovered frozen in rivers or in the forest over the past two years during similar attempts.听听

There鈥檚 also evidence that some of these encounters are about more than economic desperation. Recent data suggests that terrorists may be exploiting the weakness in enforcement at the northern border. According to the CBP鈥檚 Terrorist Screening Dataset (TSDS), better known as the 鈥渢errorist watchlist,鈥� almost occurred at the northern border in FY23. Now almost halfway through FY24, that statistic has risen to 93%. A significant number of drug and weapons seizures are also taking place. In FY23, CBP seized at the northern border, including 26,900 pounds of cocaine, almost 27 times that of 2022. Weapons and ammunition seizure events at the , a 20% increase from 2022.听听

In short, there鈥檚 simply no doubt that the US is facing a range of challenges in its efforts to strengthen its borders against irregular migration, smuggling, organized crime, and other national security challenges. These challenges are different in scale and scope than we faced twenty and thirty years ago. Focusing only on the conditions in Mexico and the Northern Triangle means that we鈥檙e missing what drives people to come here from China, India, the Middle East, South America, and Africa. Focusing only on border crossings from Mexico also means that we鈥檙e ignoring the growing threats entering the US from the world鈥檚 largest land border.听听

Around the world, more people are displaced than ever before. From war to tyranny to economic desperation, the drivers of these trends are wide ranging. There isn鈥檛 one single solution, nor is there a single effective humanitarian response. But what is abundantly clear is that we can鈥檛 close our eyes or wish these problems away.听

This blog was researched and drafted with the assistance of Christopher Cao.听